ExxonMobil's energy outlook projects population, economic growth to drive energy demand

December 16, 2016

Global population growth of nearly 2 billion, a doubling of worldwide economic output and rapid expansion of the middle class in emerging economies are all expected to contribute to energy demand growth of about 25 percent from 2015 to 2040, according to ExxonMobil’s 2017 Outlook for Energy: A View to 2040.

Efficiency gains across economies worldwide will play a significant role in limiting the growth in energy needs. Energy demand in member nations of the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) is likely to be flat to 2040, while demand in non-OECD nations is expected to increase 40 percent as prosperity expands and access to modern energy increases....

Key findings of the report include:

• From 2015 to 2040, global demand for energy is expected to increase by about 25 percent – roughly equivalent to the total energy used today in North America and Latin America.
• In 2040, oil and natural gas are expected to make up nearly 60 percent of global supplies, while nuclear and renewables will be approaching 25 percent.
• Natural gas demand will expand significantly, accounting for about 40 percent of the projected growth in global energy demand.
• Nuclear and renewable energy sources – including bio-energy, hydro, geothermal, wind, and solar – are also likely to account for 40 percent of the growth in global energy demand to 2040.
• Oil will provide about one third of the world’s energy in 2040, remaining the No. 1 source of fuel, with growth driven by commercial transportation and chemicals demand. Average global fuel economy for new light-duty vehicles is expected to improve by about two-thirds.
• Carbon intensity of the global economy is likely to be reduced by 45 percent through 2040, reflecting significant gains in the energy efficiency of economies worldwide and a gradual transition to lower carbon-intensive energy types.
• Global energy-related carbon dioxide emissions are likely to peak during the 2030s and begin to decline, even as global economic output doubles from 2015 to 2040.
• North America, which for decades had been an oil importer, is likely to become a significant net exporter by 2025.
• India is likely to surpass China as the world’s most populous nation by 2025. The two countries are expected to account for about 45 percent of the growth in global energy demand.

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Read the entire article about the report at Penn Energy.